Today, Adobe released its 2024 UK holiday online spending forecast, projecting record-breaking online sales of £25.9 billion for the season from 1 November through 31 December.
Based on Adobe Analytics data tracking billions of visits to UK retail sites and 100 million SKUs across 18 categories, the report provides an in-depth view of the UK digital economy this season.
Consumers Focus on Value, Favouring Major Discount Days
The 2024 forecast anticipates a 6.1% increase in UK holiday spending year-over-year, with Black Friday (£1.13 billion) and Cyber Monday (£940 million) expected to be the top spending days. Despite a more stable economic outlook, shoppers remain cautious, gravitating toward these discount days to maximise their budgets. “Deal-hungry shoppers will again concentrate their spending over the Black Friday and Cyber Monday weekend,” says Vivek Pandya, lead analyst for Adobe Digital Insights, reflecting consumers’ continued focus on value.
Shift to Affordable Options and Free Delivery Choices
Adobe’s data shows that consumers are prioritising affordability over premium items, with spending on the highest-priced products down 21% compared to pre-pandemic levels in 2021. This trend also extends to delivery options, with an anticipated 23.8% drop in orders using expedited shipping. Instead, shoppers are opting for free standard delivery, up by 3.9% year-over-year, and click-and-collect, rising by 12.3%.
Increased Use of Buy Now, Pay Later
In light of rising costs, Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) services are set to reach new highs, with consumers projected to spend £3.4 billion this season, an 8.3% increase year-over-year. Adobe expects Cyber Monday alone to see £152.3 million in BNPL purchases, marking the largest day yet for BNPL usage in the UK as shoppers leverage short-term credit to secure deals.
Growing Role of Generative AI in Holiday Shopping
Adobe Analytics notes a significant rise in holiday traffic driven by Generative AI sources, which has increased tenfold from July to September. The upward trend is likely to continue through the season, with consumers using AI tools for gift ideas, product recommendations, and price comparisons to get the best deals.
Stronger Discounts on Popular Product Categories
Retailers are expected to offer deeper discounts than in 2023, with reductions between 6% and 24% across categories. Notable discounts include computers (-24%), televisions (-22%), apparel (-18%), and toys (-17%). The most significant discounts will peak on Black Friday for toys and personal care, on Cyber Saturday for apparel and computers, and on Cyber Monday for televisions.
Demand Shifts to Mobile and Organic Search
With £14.6 billion in projected mobile sales, mobile shopping is set to account for 56.3% of total online spending this holiday season, up from 55.2% in 2023. Organic search and direct traffic are also expected to rise, with paid search declining as consumers increasingly rely on specific searches and affiliate recommendations to find gifts.
This year’s anticipated bestsellers include staple favourites like smartphones, LEGO, and Jellycat toys, alongside newer items such as MGA Miniverse Diner sets, Bitzee interactive toys, and smart rings, showing a diverse consumer interest as the season approaches.
