Morrisons and Sainsbury’s Top Early Christmas Ad Leaderboard

Morrisons and Sainsbury’s have taken an early lead in System1’s 2026 Christmas advertising rankings, with both festive campaigns achieving the maximum 5.9-Star Rating and identical Spike Ratings of 1.68.

The early leaderboard, drawn from data on System1’s Test Your Ad platform as of 12 November, shows eight of the top 12 Christmas campaigns reaching 5.9 Stars, the score that signals the strongest potential for long-term brand growth. M&S (5.9 Stars, 1.58 Spike) and Aldi (5.9 Stars, 1.51 Spike) follow, giving supermarkets the top four positions, while Thatchers is fifth with 5.9 Stars. Disney, Barbour and the National Lottery have also reached the maximum score.

Just 0.3 Stars separate first and twelfth place. Coca-Cola, Lidl and Tesco each score 5.7 Stars, and Waitrose completes the top 12 with 5.6 Stars for The Perfect Gift 2, its six-minute festive romcom. The Waitrose film also records a Spike Rating of 1.65, among the strongest on the leaderboard, indicating significant short-term sales potential.

The early top 12

Ads are ranked by Star Rating, which predicts long-term brand-building potential, with the Spike Rating, which predicts short-term sales potential, used to separate ads with identical Star Ratings.

1. Morrisons – 5.9 Stars, 1.68 Spike – Made Just Right
2. Sainsbury’s – 5.9 Stars, 1.68 Spike – Sainsbury’s Big Delivery
3. M&S – 5.9 Stars, 1.58 Spike – The Home of Christmas
4. Aldi – 5.9 Stars, 1.51 Spike – Will it be a paw-fect Christmas
5. Thatchers – 5.9 Stars, 1.37 Spike – Saving Tasting Time
6. Disney – 5.9 Stars, 1.34 Spike – The Invisible Horse
7. Barbour – 5.9 Stars, 1.32 Spike – Barbour x Wallace & Gromit
8. National Lottery – 5.9 Stars, 0.98 Spike – Believe
9. Coca-Cola – 5.7 Stars, 1.66 Spike – Holidays Are Coming (AI)
10. Lidl – 5.7 Stars, 1.61 Spike – Lidl Christmas Everybody
11. Tesco – 5.7 Stars, 1.44 Spike – The Wrong Address
12. Waitrose – 5.6 Stars, 1.65 Spike – The Perfect Gift 2 (6 min)

System1 tests major Christmas campaigns each year, measuring real consumers’ emotional responses to predict commercial effectiveness. Ads receive a Star Rating from 1.0 to 5.9 alongside a Spike Rating, and only around 1% of ads achieve a 5-Star Rating across the year.

Familiar faces and supermarket strength

Familiar characters and established storytelling are a defining theme. Sainsbury’s has reunited audiences with Roald Dahl’s BFG for a third consecutive Christmas, while Aldi’s Kevin the Carrot continues his long festive run. Coca-Cola’s AI-created rendition of Holidays Are Coming draws on one of its most distinctive brand assets, and Waitrose has reunited Keira Knightley and Joe Wilkinson for a six-minute sequel to last year’s festive romcom.

Grocers take seven of the 12 places. Lidl’s Lidl Christmas Everybody is a playful reworking of Slade’s festive classic starring Shaun Williamson, known for playing Barry in EastEnders, while Tesco’s The Wrong Address also features among the early front-runners.

Handcrafted animation also performs strongly. Barbour achieves 5.9 Stars with its latest collaboration with Aardman, which brings Wallace & Gromit back for a stop-motion Christmas adventure. Thatchers’ Saving Tasting Time, its first-ever Christmas advert, was also produced with Aardman and combines traditional stop-motion animation and puppetry with CGI.

“If the early leaders tell us anything, it’s that Brits love an underdog. We’re drawn to the unsung heroes and unlikely characters who bring a little magic, mischief or humour to the everyday. Whether it’s Daddy Bear for Morrisons, the BFG for Sainsbury’s, Kevin the Carrot for Aldi or Joe Wilkinson chasing after Keira Knightley, we all love someone to root for. Someone we can see a bit of ourselves in, or someone we’d quite like to see ourselves with (I’m looking at you, M&S fans).

“There’s plenty of noise about AI and the next big creative breakthrough, but we risk overcomplicating what makes a great Christmas ad. The formula is hardly a secret. Take a leaf out of Richard Curtis’s book: give us a character to care about, a problem to overcome and, above all, a happy ending. Make us laugh, make us feel something, and give us a reason to remember who made it.”

Andrew Tindall, Chief Growth Officer, Advertising, System1

The rankings reflect Christmas campaigns tested on System1’s Test Your Ad platform up to 12 November, with supermarkets holding the top four positions at this early stage of the festive advertising season.